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Succinct articles that help us understand the time in which we find ourselves. This is an Adult site and this is a good read. Like a giant scroll across the sky.

#Syria, Russian Chess, Red Lines and Red Lights.

I do not write in any official state capacity

There are few good options in regards to Syria.

The Arab Spring had a way of drawing fighters into unstable Countries. Once the US left Iraq, all the nasties started to fan back out and fight anywhere they could. Remember this is separate from the original Syrian uprising which was by Syrians for reform.

As for the CW use, you would have to have considerable equipment for the area covered plus the amount of casualties make it unlikely that rebels have the capability of such a strike. If in fact Syrian Generals went Rogue, this would still be the responsibility of Assad. His CW stock = his neck. There was an assassination attack aimed at Assad a week prior which makes this look as retribution.

It is sad to say that after Libya and Benghazi, I Am skeptical that CINC has his head in the game or that he could run a conflict. Going to War with a distracted CINC during sequestration with a Military Pay cut and low morale may not be wise. An attack by a CINC that was going to with hold Soldier pay while they were in Combat while still allowing welfare checks to go out does not inspire my confidence in his taking the Military seriously. Rot his Soul. It may slow removal of our equipment from Afghanistan and that is not even the tip of the iceberg.

If CINC wanted to send a shot over the bow, he could just send a fighter jet to buzz Damascus and blow out all their windows. That would be plenty of warning enough. However, as things currently stand, it is too late to make any action that would have considerable meaning (Such as taking out the launchers and military units involved in the CW attack). Hence, we lost our violence of action and most of that stuff has been moved by now.

CINC should have pulled a Regan on them and taken those units out right after CW was used but that is not here nor there. Russia gets awful huffy about it.

The US is not the only Country that has options here. Naturally, were action to take place, Hezbollah would strike Israel and in Lebanon (Not that they don’t plan that anyways). They would also strike at our Embassies and here at home as well. Russia could drop the hammer on Saudi Arabia. The Suez could be blocked which with Obamas Soviet Economy, could finish collapsing the US and wipe out the dollar. Note I said finish as POTUS has collapsed the economy considerably.

Jordan and Iraq stated they would refuse allowing a strike from their Countries.

China is also sending ships. No telling how that arranges events.

An out as proposed by the Russians and approved by the Syrian Regime was to place CW under International control. For now, this is the best plan and I would highly suggest that this action be taken. It would not be easy as this would require much coordination and Forcible inspection.

I would not give a green light at all for an attack on Syria at this point if the above plan truly is instituted. I probably would not give a green light anyway. All and all, in the end, it’s all about Assads lack of a chin.

Image

Some references as I don’t have time to link up this post.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, SNAFUBAR

#Watching Aug 2012

There are two kinetic wars currently on-going and are being largely ignored – these Soldiers require serious attention probably now more than ever. It’s a Meat Grinder and #CINC has been vaporwear on it.

Hezbollah’s network of procurement in Canada

Iran admits giving WMD to terrs

Saudi pull out of Lebanon over kidnappings

Another Civil War in Lebanon?

The next proxy war

Collateral fallout of WMD attack on Israel with Jordan and Lebanon – same if WMD are blown in stock.

Taliban style attack on on Pakistan Base (Assumed part of the nuclear strategics)

Egypt’s reverse Revolution

Continued strife in Mali

Kurds in autonomy, Turks on the trigger

Salifist are gaining momentum in Tunisia

QE3? WTF

Employers agonizing over having to lay off people and some just to close shop outright.

Water resources in the Middle east are being abused and drying up – it’s the nest thing.

Wondering if it is time to close the Philadelphi Corridor

The Yemen split governance and military

Egypt turning back on accords with Israel. Un-wise. (Think Congress of Vienna)

Pussy Riot – it really made Putin look weak.

 

Filed under: SNAFUBAR, Viewing, ,

An ecclectic view of the conundrum that is #Afghanistan.

There are many different aspects to this… whatever it is.

First, there is the Murder of Civillians by the troop:

“Politics be damned. It must be handled under UCMJ – probably ART 118 which carries death penalty. After the Investigation, will see what mitigating circumstance the Troop has. The AO was a particularly nasty place in Afghanistan.

The issue as far as the military should be the fact that the timing of this put every Soldier in Afghanistan at greater danger. Having our plans to leave there disintegrating could mean the difference between an orderly exit from country, and getting our Troops shot in the back on the way out.

It is a heinous offence to have killed those civilians. An even greater one to have put all of your team mates, your brothers in greater danger.”

The lightfighters are also weighing in:

“Total BS. This guy flipped, but it wasn’t 4 deployments in 10 years, marital problems, and Sniper school that did it. I fucking hate the media. Anybody else notice they really have a hard on for us lately. They are really going out of their way to report all the bad they can about this war.
I’m here right now, and this guys actions are not going to go unanswered. I’m also on deployment 5 in 11 years, a Sniper Section Leader, and have 3 kids and a tad bit of maritail difficulties. This guy did this, not because anything he was taught, and he dishonors himself, his comrades(fallen or standing), his nation and his family. I hope I don’t fucking know him.”

On a wider scope from CNAS:

“Yet US military officials remain reluctant to drawdown forces. One White House proposal reportedly on the table would have 10,000 US troops leaving by year’s end, and another 10,000 by mid-2013. The mid-2013 date, however, concerns commanders on the ground, who have made it clear that they don’t like giving up troops before the end of the fighting season, which runs from spring until autumn. “

And that sounds like timing is more important than feelings. The prudent path is not always the preferred one.

And finally, the last point I would like to make here.

Look at the language used in these articles and note specificly the second headline. We know it was one lone Soldier on his own but the media expand it to “Western forces”. Pretty low. It definately has bearing on how things are seen over there. And the “Journalists” think they are doing the world a great service.

Geez

Another caveat. If Soldiers defense becomes PTSD, whats to say a not so distant leader will one day use that information to lock certain Soldiers up in mental institutions.

Active conversations:

http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/vb/showthread.php?p=2343865&posted=1#post2343865
http://lightfighter.net/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/5131022531/m/83020030963?r=64120540963#64120540963
http://professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37117&page=3
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15273&page=3

03/18/12 – Two noteworthy articles I wanted to relay –

“The compensation policies we have pursued over the last decade imply that we think service members are solely motivated by personal financial gains.  Let me assure you, this is not true, but the question remains; how much is too much?  Where do we draw the line?  How much do you pay people when it’s impossible to objectively determine what they deserve?”

May I say, For the very reason this Soldier stands on his trial for his life and the fact that you know you may not be returning whole tells me right here that this is the just and proper pay Soldiers should be receiving right now. Moreover, whom else in the entire federal worker pay system faces the mortal threat Our Soldiers face? How many do you see on trial for their lives? Some live quite lavish. Maybe looking at the military for that answer may be the wrong part of the government to focus on.

Also, prior to this Rogue act, General John Allen tried to defuse a bomb before it went off:

“There will be moments like this, when your emotions are governed by anger and a desire to strike back. Now is not the time for revenge, now is the time to look deep inside your souls, remember your mission, remember your discipline, remember who you are.”

Tough one for sure.

03/19/12 – “And let’s not take the easy way out and blame The Man for the actions of a man because it fits your narrative. That’s not justice and it’s irresponsible. Robert Bales is not the victim here – the victims are in Afghanistan.”

Filed under: Analysis, Battle, SNAFUBAR

A nation of lunitics?

Come across this Atlantic headline: “45.9 million American suffered from mental illness last year

Great, at this rate the entire nation could be in a mental institution in seven years.  But I tend to believe our Media are institutions of their own volition.

Filed under: SNAFUBAR

When the only answer is to tax, no problems are being resolved #economy #tcot

The President must be held to account for his own policies. Destruction of economies should never be on any Executives “list of things to do”. The American Government and the American Economy are not toys to play with. They are systems that must be protected. A failure to do so will reduce the “revenues” the government may extract from the private sector ergo creating more debt through interest. The economy is upside down with the federal government riding US the people so hard with regulatory overburden and tax.

You may wonder why the market sucks right now, look at the dollar. And these fools are talking about a QE3. There will be no where to put money in. I hope you are prepared.

Filed under: Economy, Fail, SNAFUBAR, systems

Graceful Divestment #usdebt Rating and standing. This issue is far from over.

Every country that has hit 100% of it’s GDP in debt has defaulted – or will.

Every other country with debt issues such as have been downgraded, and rightfully so. The only thing that prevents this right now may be reserve currency status and the fact that all other currencies suck worse than the Dollar right now.

The issue aside from the fact that the value of credit agency ratings may no longer represent investment expectations, is the issue that it is frightfully expensive to lose a credit rating as a Nation. Not to mention, tack on that added interest to the debt, and lenders may no longer find US currency, bonds, and securities worth the risk if they see reckless accounting practices.

On the flip side, maybe that added burden may force politicians to curtail their vanity and cull the budget properly but I highly doubt it.

If you are going to have a ratings agency, would it not be prudent to rate Countries on the worth to GDP level minus government expenditure?

It was done with Russia which is one of the reasons for Putin’s quip. Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, all at various levels. After a point they are junk status. Junk status is when you lost your shirt.

Downgrade the US now or give them another chance to get their balance sheet in order?

08/05/11 – Some structured advice and here is your sign.

08/07/11 – The rate of spending from the masterminds in Washington DC far outstrips what ever could have been paid in taxes. We must begin to be honest to ourselves, or live like mad max.

08/08/11 – It really IS a big deal. Remember my warnings prior and the rating rant.   Also, it helps to check Shadow Stats!

11/18/11 – This will be a downgrade. Democrats, you SUCK.

Filed under: Economy, SNAFUBAR, Update

Named after a Vin Diesel movie, fast and furious may end up on the Presidents calendar

Originally published July 27th.

Watch the legal boondoggle festivities here and leer in anticipation.

Withholding and falsifying documents is not the worst thing in this case. If guns ran or walked, it still was very egregious failure in leadership.

This harmed our ties with Mexico during an already difficult time for them.

ATF stated that four federal agencies were “full partners”. 

And of course, the Whitehouse knew. An admittance?

The chat on the true street.

07/28/11 – The operation was an upgrade on the cartels capabilities.

07/30/11 – This is the perfect storm of ideocy

08/01/11 – Read the Senate report.

08/09/11 – Goes all the way to the White House.

08/31/11 – The ATF chief is thrown under the bus and whistleblowers are on notice. Truely corrupt this DOJ.

09/02/11 – So, Holder and Incompetent DHS Secretary Knew. And the Whitehouse got e-mails about it. So, in my book, they all knew. This is far bigger than watergate. The useless media will not cover it. Well I cover it. Pajamas Media is covering it. And here is a supposed insider report from newsflavor. Holder is the most corrupt Attorney General in all of US History. He should be in Prison, not sitting at that desk.

In fact, I will again put this at the top because I Do not want it to go away.

09/09/11 – White House Gunrunner.

09/10/11 – The FBI hid evidence.

09/20/11 – Issa wants a special prosecutor. I do too.

09/25/11 – That scumbag Leahy Implicated In Obstruction Of Gunwalker Case.

09/28/11 – WaterGate did not have a Body Count.

09/29/11 – Is it an impeachable offence?

10/2/11 – Yes, a direct line to the White House.

10/08/11 – Yes, Bush had a similar program WITH interdiction and tracking and shut the unsuccessful program down as it was a failure. That does not mean you quadruple the size of the program and try it again.

Bush had stimulus spending too and it did not work, why keep doing things that do not work.

11/22/12 – We are a Primary Supplier?

01/30/12 – Holder knew the day Brian Terry was killed by “Fast and furious” weapons.

02/01/12 – The Family of Brian Terry has filed suit.

Filed under: Corruption, Leadership, SNAFUBAR

The people do not trust the US government. Why reward it more money for more piss poor performance? #budget #tcot

The intent of this exercise is to change the behavior of this government. We have lost the control of our federal government on almost every level as they are increasingly trying to get full control of US.

It’s not worth it.

We need to get this government operating on a cash balance sheet instead of this accrual creative reporting system as of current.

It must start somewhere and it needs to start now. Thwarting fiduciary responsibility is reckless and should not be tolerated.

It would be nice if some people in the Senate would show some intestinal fortitude and pass the current house passed legislation no matter how flawed it seems to be. It would also be nice to make the general fund illegal and appropriate funds into the accounts directly. But I may only dream so much….

Then some of you say that the Government knows how to better manage your money than you do.

07/23/11 – Bob Krumm provides a teaching point.

07/24/11 – When money dies (.PDF)

08/30/11 – Meade provides US with an option.

10/14/11 – You know your city is a hell hole when….

Filed under: SNAFUBAR, systems, Update

Been there, done that. #Azeri #Armenia round two? very similar to #Kosovo

History repeats on the outskirts of what we tend to believe are the major issues. This spat between Azerbaijan and Armenia and it’s still over this stupid border spat.  Nagorny Karabakh has been a problem for quite a while.  (1991)

A note of interest, Armenia has until recently been selling arms to Col Qudaffi.

As usual, it is now down but to a tiny Christian sliver from Georgia to Armenia. Always getting pushed back more and more.

Tribes have many different reactions to aggression. It really does look similar. There is a traditional slow working overly aggressive force and one day, someone collects the data and decides to retaliate. Against hostile Islam, if you are not being aggressive with them, they will be aggressive with you.

Thats just the way it is.

See where this trajectory leads and why it is so important here…

No one wants to talk about a specific world religion unless it is Jewish. No whisper of Islam anywhere.

06/11 – Where is Turkey headed? Probably not the correct path.

06/12 – Peace – which is not Ennuah

06/17 – Iran and Armenia work on border agreement

06/20/11 – The EU takes up the case and a similar situation we saw in Bosnia.

06/26/11 – The Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani summit fails.

06/29/11 –  More background from Global Voices.

 

Filed under: Destruction, SNAFUBAR, Uncategorized, Update

The pains of succession in the Kingdom of Saud.

I have been watching intensely the leadership in Saudi Arabia for the past few years. I guess when you have been to a country, you tend to pay more mind to it. The Monarchy in house of Saud is pretty straight forward in it’s succession. In short, there is none.

The King has major health problems and Faisal is also ill as well. My assumption is Article 11 is being used in the background as outlined in Allegiance Institution Law as outlined in this Jamestown Article.

Bandar bin Sultan is the next to govern but he also is rumored to have Alzheimers. That leaves Khaled bin Sultan and Mutaib bin Abdullah. That brotherly love will probably be as strong as the kind where five get on a helicopter, and only four land with it.

It puts US in a particular situation concerning the fact that Russia and China as well as Israel are all vying for position in the future of this State. Everyone is concerned.

The reason I picked now to focus on this is I feel impending nervousness over the possibilities here in the middle of the Arab “Spring”.

It could get quite interesting.

10/14/11 – Deputy Prime Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz is temporarily assuming power as King Abdullah returns to surgery on his back in Riyad. He is the King’s half brother.

10/23/11 – Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud has passed away And i looks like Nayef is poised to take his place. We thought so since he was left in charge. See how he may rule.

10/27/11 – Looks more likely now.

10/28/11 – It’s a done deal.

06/16/12 – Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has passed. Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud may assume, but he must pick his successor from a younger generation.

06/21/12 – “The Al Sauds’ central nervous system has grown weak,” says a Riyadh lawyer. “They can respond to pain, but not to stimuli like complaints or new ideas.”

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Kings, SNAFUBAR, Update

Heads up on #LATAM

The briefing that helped push me on this post originated from General Douglas Fraser whom is in command of SOUTHCOM. His briefing at the Pentagon was enlightening. I have studiously watched Central America having grown up during the fight against proxies there in the 1980’s and earlier, but after 9/11, the region was somewhat swept under the rug.

Does anyone remember FMLM, Honduras, El-Salvador, and the Sandinistas?. I wanted to bring up some older venacular for those whom may remember all the turmolt we put up with in the region for over 60 years. Well, it looks like that little 10 year “break” is over. –

“In a briefing at the Pentagon, Commander General Douglas Fraser of the U.S. Southern Command (Southcom) stated that the ‘Northern Triangle,’ made up of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, has likely become the deadliest region on earth outside of active war zones.”

I definately agree. What is essentially happening here in LATM is Middle Eastern
actors are doing through proxy what they eventually accomplished in Lebanon. Hezbollah is Irans proxy for more than just Lebanon, Hezbollah has reach in this world. A good primer is from AFJ where shown is the groups prolific value to any organization due to the drug and arms trade.

Most disturbing is the expanding ties between FARC and Hezbollah – Though seemingly dated, slow operations are not necessarily un-solid. Warning signs were appearing prior to 9/11 but grew out of focus with our ensuing war on terror. Bombs have been wired in very particular fashion and are now going off regularly on the US / Mexican border region. There is also internal proof that Hezbollah is on the border.

The Canal that Iran, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are planning to build – China may be
funding it. China sure shows continued interest in the Panama Canal. There is also Nicaragua’s delimma- another power vacuum.

FARC has expanded to Mexico which means we have come full circle – it means Hezbollah is in Mexico. It also means Iran is in Mexico, as well as Al-Qeada, MS-13, and the cartels which goes without mentioning. (PDF) You should remember all this stuff from years past; Gang initiations, Spanish speaking Jihadi’s, Al-Jazeera on the US / Mexican border.

Al Quds force have also recently moved into Venezuela and other assorted nasties knocking on our back door: Includes the ETA whom are also related to IRCG.

Druggies bringing in the hezzies, Russians are bringing the arms, China is bringing cash, brute strength of naval force and a canal. We also have a major proxy funded and aided by middle eastern thugs in order to turn South and Central America into a Moslem nation able to wage war upon the US. Unstable neighbors right across the back yard fence are having party with all of our enemies and we cannot seem to hear the music.

It is not only what I see here on the ground, it is a feeling that too many bad actors are creating the perfect horror story for the USA.

Secure the border.

Update – 4/14 Vibed threats and cartels moving south to weaker states.

4/18 Insight Map.

4/21 – Unconnected but concise posting on failed states.

5/5 – Hezbollah on the border.

5/9 – Training camps in Venezuela.

5/10 – Small Wars picks up thread. Time to make a separate thread for this? Also, a refresher from Jamestown – dated but relevant.

05/15 – FARC placed Chavez, not the other way around.

05/18 –  Ecuador is becoming the nexus of drug corruption.

05/24 – Societal Warfare South of the Border? 

06/01 Gangs taking over

06/07 – Iran and Venezuela – cut ties with the US.

06/13 – Evil cruelty in the gangs.

07/06/11 – Arizona Police say Hezbollah is in Mexico.

07/08/11 – Iran Paranoia Expands to Latin America

07/09/11 – House Hearings on Hezbollah and their influence south.

07/21/11 – Weapons and drug smuggling – from Columbia to Honduras, Guatemala wants a LATAM solution and a map of routes.

07/25/11 – Iran is getting really involved with Peru. And Argentina.

09/10/11 – “Something is up

10/12/11 – Made up or related? Plot on the Saudi Ambassador. Also, the Zetas connection?

10/14/11 – Lawmakers suggest treating drug cartels as terrorist organizations.

10/17/11 – Hondurus: The hub has problems.

12/10/11 – Univision confirms Iran is operating in LATAM. Venezuela

12/14/11 – Zetas and Hezbollah.

12/16/11 – Iran on our border.

12/28/11 – General McCaffrey on Mexico from Yon.

01/01/11 – The U.S. is overlooking Iran’s moves in South America.

10/03/11 – Iran expands influence in LATAM.

01/10/12 – Of course, Hezbollah is already in the US. We knew that. A list of other coodies.

01/24/12 – The Venezuelan Missile Crisis

01/26/12 – Panama could become next narco battleground: http://articles.latimes.com/2009/may/24/world/fg-panama-drugs24

01/31/12 – This must be reversed: http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/latin-america/irans-gambit-in-latin-america/

02/12/12 – Photos at the border.

05/04/12 – May as well update this.

05/11/12 – Holy CRAP. Crystal Meth.

08/14/12 – Iran’s ties to Latin America and the gangs.

08/30/12 – They’re here.

09/06/12 – And they are in Nicaragua 

09/10/12 – State Department sez “dey not dere” But dey ARE dere.  Yes, Dey Are.\

09/19/12 – The recent arrest of Lebboun in Mexico has uncovered a much more extensive and complex plot than the previously known story of a low-level financier of Islamist terrorism.

09/21/12 –Hezbollah in Latin America: Terrorism and Organized Crime

12/26/12 – The IRGC’s push into Peru  Also: New Concerns For President Peña Nieto: Hezbollah’s Rising Profile In Mexico – Analysis

TSG IntelBrief: Iran’s Strategic Maneuvering in Latin America and the Caribbean

01/02/12 – Latin America as an Arena for Iran and Hezbollah’s Terrorist, Subversive and Criminal

Activities (.PDF) Also UNITED STATES SENATE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE HEARING ON “IRAN’S INFLUENCE AND ACTIVITY IN LATIN AMERICA” (.PDF)

And they will be running prisons. Already prevalent- Hezbollah joining Mexican Cartels.

01/14/13 – Ecuador to Maintain Good Ties with Iran Regardless of U.S. Objections

01/17/13 – Uruguay Connection.

05/20/13 – South of the Border, A Threat From Hezbollah (PDF)

05/30/13 – Argentinian prosecutor alleges extensive Iranian terror activity in South America |  http://ow.ly/ly8VY

06/06/13 –  Iranian Terror Cells Infest South America

08/15/13 Iran Sending Latin American Students to Indoctrination Camps as Part of Regional Penetration Campaign 

Filed under: Analysis, Heads Up, SNAFUBAR, Update

Danger Close

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