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Succinct articles that help us understand the time in which we find ourselves. This is an Adult site and this is a good read. Like a giant scroll across the sky.

#Syria, Russian Chess, Red Lines and Red Lights.

I do not write in any official state capacity

There are few good options in regards to Syria.

The Arab Spring had a way of drawing fighters into unstable Countries. Once the US left Iraq, all the nasties started to fan back out and fight anywhere they could. Remember this is separate from the original Syrian uprising which was by Syrians for reform.

As for the CW use, you would have to have considerable equipment for the area covered plus the amount of casualties make it unlikely that rebels have the capability of such a strike. If in fact Syrian Generals went Rogue, this would still be the responsibility of Assad. His CW stock = his neck. There was an assassination attack aimed at Assad a week prior which makes this look as retribution.

It is sad to say that after Libya and Benghazi, I Am skeptical that CINC has his head in the game or that he could run a conflict. Going to War with a distracted CINC during sequestration with a Military Pay cut and low morale may not be wise. An attack by a CINC that was going to with hold Soldier pay while they were in Combat while still allowing welfare checks to go out does not inspire my confidence in his taking the Military seriously. Rot his Soul. It may slow removal of our equipment from Afghanistan and that is not even the tip of the iceberg.

If CINC wanted to send a shot over the bow, he could just send a fighter jet to buzz Damascus and blow out all their windows. That would be plenty of warning enough. However, as things currently stand, it is too late to make any action that would have considerable meaning (Such as taking out the launchers and military units involved in the CW attack). Hence, we lost our violence of action and most of that stuff has been moved by now.

CINC should have pulled a Regan on them and taken those units out right after CW was used but that is not here nor there. Russia gets awful huffy about it.

The US is not the only Country that has options here. Naturally, were action to take place, Hezbollah would strike Israel and in Lebanon (Not that they don’t plan that anyways). They would also strike at our Embassies and here at home as well. Russia could drop the hammer on Saudi Arabia. The Suez could be blocked which with Obamas Soviet Economy, could finish collapsing the US and wipe out the dollar. Note I said finish as POTUS has collapsed the economy considerably.

Jordan and Iraq stated they would refuse allowing a strike from their Countries.

China is also sending ships. No telling how that arranges events.

An out as proposed by the Russians and approved by the Syrian Regime was to place CW under International control. For now, this is the best plan and I would highly suggest that this action be taken. It would not be easy as this would require much coordination and Forcible inspection.

I would not give a green light at all for an attack on Syria at this point if the above plan truly is instituted. I probably would not give a green light anyway. All and all, in the end, it’s all about Assads lack of a chin.

Image

Some references as I don’t have time to link up this post.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, SNAFUBAR

#Islam, you say? Or you say I do not say? I say my peace.

Islam

 

Another incomplete list, but you get the picture. It’s serious and it is something to be addressed. 
Pajamas Media » » Print Gaza Children Sacrificed to a Malevolent God
Iran: Arabian Nightmares
Bombings and islam
Sudan: Arguing With God
Counter-Terrorism: The Islamic Pope
Jihad Watch: Father Zakaria Botros on “The perverse sexual habits of the Prophet,” Part II
Jihad Watch: Father Zakaria Botros on “The perverse sexual habits of the Prophet” Part III
Jihad Watch: Father Zakaria Botros on “The perverse sexual habits of the Prophet,” Part II
Counter-Terrorism: Don’t Let The Goyim Know
Darfur vs Gaza: African muslims are worth less than Arab muslims – City of Brass
Family Security Matters » Publications » Wilders Prosecution is a Welcome Opportunity to Expose Islam
The threat of ‘sharia’ to America – Page 2 – Professional Soldiers ®
Winning: The End Of Empire
Ennahar Online
Al-Qaeda in gay rape horror | The Sun |News
Beheading in the Empire State – Kathryn Jean Lopez – The Corner on National Review Online
HASSAN CHOP | Daily Telegraph Tim Blair Blog
Pajamas Media » War and Peace — and Deceit — in Islam (Part 1)
Pajamas Media » War and Peace — and Deceit — in Islam (Part 2)
Headless Body in Legless Story – Mark Steyn – The Corner on National Review Online
Lazy man yawns – Mark Steyn – The Corner on National Review Online
The Islamic world’s malevolent zeitgeist
Counter-Terrorism: Islamic Radicals Get Blinded By The Light
Saudi judge sentences pregnant gang-rape victim to 100 lashes for committing adultery | Mail Online
saudi vs sorcery
Dhimmi Watch: UK libraries put Qur’an, Bible on top shelf to avoid offending Muslims
Jihad Watch: Wilders: “Our elites…are so blinded by their own ideology that they turn a blind eye to the truth”
Al Qaeda Says It Executed Briton – NYTimes.com
BBC NEWS | Middle East | ‘Why I created Islamic super heroes’
Hizb Ut-Tahrir: Shariah Takes Precedence over U.S. Constitution: Imam Promises to Fight “Until Islam Becomes Victorious or We Die in the Attempt” :: The Investigative Project on Terrorism
Worldpress.org – World Press Wire
Islam, the West and Our
Counter-Terrorism: The Menace Of Murderous Militant Morons
Islam, Apostacy and implications for USA… – Professional Soldiers ®
Demoting Islam’s Religion Status – Professional Soldiers ®
Counter-Terrorism: Madrassa Madness
DAWN.COM | World | Iraqi Christian leader denounces latest attacks
Muslim Killed After Being Found With 6 Qurans – Professional Soldiers ®
Inside the Gunman’s Mosque – The Daily Beast
Reforming Islam From Within: Is It Happening Even Now, And Is It Under Attack By Counter-Jihadists?
Terrorism that’s personal (12 images) | Reporting with a camera
“At War with Islam” an Essay by Martel Sobieskey « Lighthouse Patriot Journal
Indonesia: Mob of 1000 Muslims storms a church under construction – Jihad Watch
MEMRI – Middle East Media Research Institute
Muslim child and friends behead man while praising Allah (Video) « Creeping Sharia
Chesler Chronicles » Could Jesus Live Safely In Bethlehem Today? » Print
It’s always the jihad
We Keep Lying to Ourselves About Islam
Unmask evil force that uses Islam to serve political interests
Obama’s New Year Gift To The Saudi King – Professional Soldiers ®
Counter-Terrorism: Islamic Intolerance
Counter-Terrorism: Why Holy Warriors Can’t Find Love
John Quincy Adams on Islam – Professional Soldiers ®
What Connection between Religion and Terrorism? « On War and Words
Gallup Center for Muslim Studies
The Jawa Report: Images: Islamists Behead Pakistani Soldiers on Video
Support: Foreign Mercenaries In Arabia
Terrorist Attacks — Infoplease.com
Winning: A Bloody Last Stand
AFP: Anti-Qaeda Sunni imams slaughtered in Iraq: military
Afghan Parliamentarian Calls for Execution of Christians
65 killed in twin suicide attacks in Mohmand Agency
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3891326,00.html
Nigeria: Muslims destroy Christian churches | EnerPub – Energy Publisher
Can al-Qaeda Use Islam to Justify Jihad in the United States? A Debate in Progress – The Jamestown Foundation
Our Friends, the Saudis? – Clifford D. May on National Review Online
FrontPage Magazine » An Invented Tale? » Print
What You Can’t Say About Islamism
Iraqi Interpreter’s Killing Pits Faith Against Law – IWPR Institute for War & Peace Reporting
Daily Times – Leading News Resource of Pakistan – Eight killed as Christian village attacked in Nigeria
McCarthy: Intolerant Islam – Professional Soldiers ®
Ayaan Hirsi Ali: How to Win the Clash of Civilizations – WSJ.com
It’s Not All Islam – Professional Soldiers ®
BBC News – Preventing violent extremism: A failed policy?
Your rape culture is not my religion
Dar al-Hadith دار الحديث: ISA
Video of brutal Taliban execution of Pakistani policemen emerges – The Long War Journal
Is Reforming Islam a Possibility? – International Analyst Network
Counter-Terrorism: Why Islam Isn’t Innocent
GoodShit › <B>Why Islam Isn’t Innocent</b>
The Jihad is Against the Bible – Diana West – Townhall Conservative
Professional Soldiers ® – The Political Violence of the Bible and the Koran
Can-You-Hear-Us-Now!: Understanding Muslims. The Good, The Bad, The Ugly!
The New Concise History of the Crusades – Professional Soldiers ®
Counter-Terrorism: The Cost Of Moslem Intolerance
What Is Islam? – International Analyst Network
islam
Political Islam // Articles // Self-Taught
Hajj for Heathens – Boing Boing
Counter-Terrorism: Beware The New Guy
Don’t Forget Sudan’s Slaves – By Nina Shea – The Corner – National Review Online
Russia’s New Age terrorist, and what he tells us about the global jihadist movement – Telegraph Blogs
American Thinker: Why We Should Fear the Moslem Brother
The OIC and the Caliphate – National Review Online
YouTube – Broadcast Yourself beheading others
Pentagon lists mosques where Al Qaeda recruited: WikiLeaks
The Koran and the Ethics of Faith and Questioning – By Michael Potemra – The Corner – National Review Online
VDH’s Private Papers:: Islam’s Uninterrupted History of Forced Conversions
Pakistan: 12 year-old Christian gang raped for eight months, forcibly converted to Islam, “married” to her Muslim attacker – Jihad Watch
Islam prices people like livestock « Money Jihad
Footage Surfaces Of Saudi Arabian “Sorcerer” Being Publicly Beheaded – With Graphic Video at Pat Dollard
Robert Spencer: Islam for Leftists – Jihad Watch
Forty-five students found held in basement in chains by police raiding Islamic seminary thought to be ‘Taliban training centre’ | Mail Online
Asia Times Online :: The fifth horseman of the apocalypse
Nigerian Christians Dismayed by President’s Security Response | News | English
Al Arabiya Arabic Channel Chooses Weirdest Fatwas of 2011 | TheBlaze.com
Islam is fear 0
Gates of Vienna: Islam is Fear, Part I
Gates of Vienna: Islam is Fear, Part II
Gates of Vienna: Islam is Fear, Part III
closed minds and islamist movement
FrontPage Magazine » What’s Really Wrong with the Middle East » Print
Afghanistan’s Bloody Tuesday – An FP Slideshow | Foreign Policy
PJ Media » The End of Religious Freedom
Islamic cleric bans women from touching bananas, cucumbers for sexual resemblance – Bikya Masr
Muslim Persecution of Christians: November 2011: “Everyone is Born a Muslim” :: Hudson New York
“Bosnia moving toward Sharia law” – Atlas Shrugs
Over 1,000 Christians Targeted & Murdered Worldwide by Islamists in 2011 | The Gateway Pundit
Islamic honor killing in Texas: “Santa” who murdered family on Christmas morning was Muslim who didn’t like his daughter dating a non-Muslim – Jihad Watch
Christian canaries in an Arab coal mine – The Globe and Mail
‘Islam Is Islam, And That’s It’ » Publications » Family Security Matters
Sandmonkey and the Salafis Go to Court: One Egyptian Activist Challenges Ultraconservative Islamists with the Law | Atlantic Council
zenpundit.com » Blog Archive » Of railroad tracks and polyphonic thinking
carnegieendowment.org/files/mauritania_islamists.pdf
Top Saudi Cleric Issues Fatwa: Destroy Churches | Via Meadia
Gates of Vienna: Two Articles About Necla Kelek’s New Book
Western Sharia – Andrew C. McCarthy – National Review Online
Another Muslim Gang Busted in “Second Child Sex Ring” of young non-Muslim girls – Atlas Shrugs
The Mumbai Model and the threat of urban terrorism | The AfPak Channel
Uncovering Early Islam :: Daniel Pipes
Ordered Liberty » Moderation Happens To Islam, Not In Islam
Spengler » Why Invent Mohammed?
Islam as a Global Cult – Analysis – Current Intelligence
Guest Post: The Real Causes of Violence in Iraq and Afghanistan – On Violence
‫توفيق عكاشة يعرض جريمة الإخوان بقتل مواطن بتونس‬‎ – YouTube
false prophettering
Graphic Video: Muslims Slaughter “Apostate” in Tunisia :: Gatestone Institute
Bin Laden’s Commitment to the Covenant – by Steven Brooke | The AfPak Channel
Narco-Terror: US bans business with four Muslims in Hezbollah laundering – Atlas Shrugs
Kenyan officials: At least 15 killed, scores injured in church attacks near Somali border – The Washington Post
Demystifying the immortality of cancer cells
China’s Identity Crisis | Hoover Institution
In the footsteps of… | Facebook
From pilot’s g-suit to three-piece suit | ArabNews
A simplistic sectarian lens magnifies extremist agenda – The National

Filed under: Analysis, Fail, House of turmolt, , ,

Where we sit in the Caucus – #Russia #Turkey #Georgia #Iran #Israel #Azerbaijan

Likely option for the Russians as they amass their armies on western Irans border – mainly Caucus region. Whats there? Georgia and Azerbaijan. I could see them settling old scores with Georgia, punch on through to Azerbaijan where sits Iran. If Azerbaijan was where Israel was to fly mission from, well, that option just got difficult. You always need ground crew.

One outstanding point about this is also the fact that the Azeris want alot to do with Iran post mullah. Whats the Russian view of this?

Turkey is obviously a Fulcrum here. They have promised to assist US, but to what point? and can I trust the CINC to not make this a entebbe moment.

04/18/12 – INSS completes something I wanted to go further on. I would not advise Russia use this as opportune time to right old wrongs or to settle prowess. Actually the opposite. For Russia, it is time to build Humnit, source capability, Intel, humanitarian crap, and refugees are going to be trouble for all Nations. Turkey, Jordan, etc are facing some numbers so it’s important to learn from those who flee a nation.

Russia protects port in Syria, the rest right now may be un-wise. Russia is the Intel . Israel frontline actor, US, reluctant partner. As you stated, Russia, you were not really interested in Iran as you were Syria. NO?

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, ,

Russia, we never knew ya. (And Europe too… and #India, and #Iran, and…)

04/02/12 – No April fools. I told you that if you messed around in Syria, you would see issues;

Bout is getting a life sentence. He is, of course, our citizen. The USA is setting a precedent,” reads the first tweet. “I think we will put Americans on trial if they commit crimes in our country. From now on they are not subject to extradition,” 

That’s pleasantries – those of you Democrats that went to charm school should understand this:

“Russia and Iran have “multiple grounds for cooperation,” Mehmanparast said in an interview with state-run news agency. The “horizon of relations with Russia will be bright” and the level of relations will rise considerably, he said.”

See, that’s a new romance with someone that has a S-400 and does want Syria. Afterall, they are going to sell to India. With no Al Assad, there is no Hezbollah. When you outright escaped my advice to not play in Syria, Russia did as they shall. They shall demand trade.

It is not like you were not going to screw Israel over anyways, just you forgot that in doing so, you decided to give up geopolitical positions many paid for dearly.

One other thing I have read and it is very convincing that with no Syria, Iran basically drops. Know how?

TRADE

I know how.

You should know how too.

Note that I did not display cargo vessels?

04/09/12 – Russia mounts the western border of Iran with troops.

04/12/12 – Russia may use a middle east event to finish the job on Georgia.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt

#Russia – The simple circular defense manuver in response to our actions, and what may be expected.

ABC Reports Russian Troops Have Arrived In Syria, Russia Denies

The Russians are adimant about regaining their sphere of influence. Imagine a conversation”

Q: Why are you going to invade Georgia?
A: Why did you invade Kosovo?
.
A: You may keep Israel, but we want Syria. We have a naval base there.

Naturally, as We deploy minesweepers to the Straight Of Hormuz, and the Russians send Marine units to Syria, to their port. They have Three ships. Strangely, they did not seem to care to defend Iran – “If you want to take Iran, take Iran but do not mess with us in Syria”. (That’s codespeak for “we will make sure we make everything you do very difficult for you to do until you pay us off somehow”)

Makes sense as the Russians have just as much to lose with a nuclear Iran as would ourselves.

It appears to me that Russia wants to persue a King Ruble strategy and that means beefing up their petrol empire. With Europe in HOC and the US being too stupid to compete, they may have a fighting chance… except for the rank corruption which is as big as ever in Russia.

With Syria, Russia could have a complete defense and pipeline loop of secure fuel for Europe – and a far stronger Ruble. This makes Tiblisi as a mere speed bump on the way through Turkey and ultimately out of a military port in Syria.

Seeing as the Russians have made numerous past (Military and/or “Aid”) investments in the likes of Syria and Lebanon, make no expectation of the Russians to taint long term goals for which they have been long laying railroad tracks. Were it their choice, they probably would like to have a very large base in Syria. I do not see them having qualms with whomever takes Syria. I am sure the Syrians no matter whom,  are not going to mess with the Russians at the port.

Just sayin.

 

Filed under: Analysis, Heads Up, House of turmolt, Strategy, ,

Refocusing on #iran in a geo-politically disoriented world.

For years, Iran has smuggled arms to it’s proxy Hezbollah in Syria. That link has eroded as baby Assad’s command rule has been disintegrating.

Recently, it was learned that Iran may have procured surface to air missiles from Libya.

The most startling development is not the help they are receiving from North Korea but the fact that Iran is perusing domestic production of carbon fiber for ballistic missiles.  They may have already procured rocket fuel and have procured the engines. They have already launched two satellites. They are working on a warhead.

Plus, it’s just suck to live there under that madly insane government. They even put Pastors to death. (BTW – Good job Mr President – for real)

The leadership makes threats on a constant basis, it may be time to take them serious. We may or may not have help with this.

10/01/11 – Do not get me wrong, I really love Iranians to the core. I dislike their leadership yet I find Iranians , almost always, a delight to speak with, do business with, and to work with. Iranians are highly educated and to remind, not all Moslem. Persia is a beautiful country with brave and respectful people. Traditional, caring, and very modern.

I sometimes forget when I post that my terse language may mislead dear reader into thinking something different than I feel. And I feel for Persia. For that could be a world class country again if they were let to free themselves from the ignorant ruling class. I certainly love the people.

10/02/11 – They are making rockets, but we have invented flying carpets. Ironic.

10/07/11 – Bushehr may have some melting down action.

10/15/11 – Some interesting comments lately within the internal politic including this “Then he declared, “We don’t need to kill Saudi ambassador, but if necessary, we are able to assassinate King Abdullah” from Prominent cleric Hojatoleslam Mehdi Taeb.  The Saudi King is currently undergoing surgery in Riyadh.

10/18/11 – Iran’s Advanced Centrifuges

10/19/11 – I have been watching the gulf between Iran and Saudi Arabia widen as of late.  This rough up over the Diplomat has not helped.

10/28/11 –

If it is the case that Iran has possessed nuclear weapons for almost 20 years, as the author claims, two components of his argument collapse. First, although it may be the case that Iran is generally ideological and jihadist, it is clear that, from the perspective of nuclear policy, they are moderate and reasonable. To possess a nuclear capability for so long without deploying or even declaring it suggests a levelheadedness that makes military action appear unnecessary.
Second, if it is the case (it’s probably not), as the author claims, that “Iran only needs a single nuclear weapon to destroy the United States” via EMP, why would we risk a nuclear counter-strike against the U.S. by initiating military regime change operations? That seems the height of foolishness, especially given the largely peaceful conduct, for the past 20 years, of a nuclear Iran.” 
Thats from CSIS, and it outlines what our foreign policy should be with Iran. The waqpo article.
Iran parliament set to question Ahmadinejad over fraud case, corruption, in blow to prestige. From Intelwire
11/6/11 – Irans proxy Hizbollah is prepping for war with Israel
11/9/11 – Look at Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
01/03/12 – Iran in Convulsion (the death spiral continues)
01/07/12 – US must exploit new split in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
01/26/12 – “Most revealing, though, is the warning of one Revolutionary Guard commander, in an anonymousletter to the opposition group Green Experts of Iran. The letter, posted on the group’s web site, says that the current commanders of the various armed forces appointed by Khamenei are delusional about their capabilities and have no clue as to the consequences of a war with America.”
02/18/12 – Internal strife admidst hard economic times = more faith in the Majlis. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Iranian Regime vs. President Ahmadinejad VIA Rantburg. Also – SWIFT To Cut Off Iran – No Financial Telecommunications
03/29/12 – U.S. sets sanctions on Iran shipping, engineer firms And IRGC is the focus. Question is are you applying pressure on the IRGC in the correct way? Did something break down spurring this particular target? Was it Venezuela?

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Update

Thoughts on a #Palestinian state #israel – not so fast.

The referendum comes down to little more than these things:

An independent Palestine without conceding the legitimacy of Israel’s sovereignty; its capital in Jerusalem; and the entry of Palestinians who left the area in 1948–49 and their descendants into pre-1967 Israel with the rights of citizenship.

1. You are trying to form a state under a permanent state of war. That is not a state,  That is a function. That’s a no-go

2. Jerusalem belongs to, and always will belong to Israel.

3. Those who left Israel fled and were PAID for that land.

4. You do not even have a recognizable government. What’s the “agreement” with?

5. You are still firing rockets into Israel. Some correct history from Sultan and Read up on the current stunt

And who comes with the monies? House of Saud.Why lose rabble rousers when you can insure a bad thing?

This speech may be worth a watch Tonight and Rodney has some pertinent thoughts.

09/23/11 – Stolen History.  This day’s history.

12/14/11 – from deep in the archives, the most succinct explanation of Israel ever.

Filed under: Fail, House of turmolt, Kings

Preparing for civil unrest

Seeing other countries contend with civil unrest, I thought it may be handy to post some pointers. The government is preparingso should you.

11/22/11 – Re-iterated.

Filed under: House of turmolt

Now is time to pay attention to #yemen #wot #military

I keep getting hits that his (Saleah’s) medical condition was worse than was thought. Now I am told he will return (sic) in two weeks.

Last night, they said he was dead, yesterday, they said he was in a Saudi hospital and a military hospital in Sana. They also said he had burns and some other wreckage. Said they had camera and films. I was not paying much mind tho. I was taking wild eyed glances into Egypt, Greece, Tunisia, K-STAN, and most of all, Armenia and the Azeris. all sorts of stuff.

The man left in charge of the country, Abd Rabu is not known to be a strong player. Radicalized is the opposition. They have control of 3 cities.

Sure looks like the cat 3 rapids are about to start in that country. (Yemen)

Saleh was apparently wounded and is in Saudi Arabia.

Updates

)6/21/11 – Opinio Juris asks DOD or CIA?

09/27/11 – Troops are amassed in the Blue Nile region, this could be political leaders bid to break up the South.

My previous research on Yemen:

More on Yemen – Fred Schwarz – The Tank on National Review Online
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/middle_east___north_africa/iraq_iran_gulf/86_yemen___defusing_the_saada_time_bomb.pdf
Counter-Terrorism: Trying To Put Yemen Back Together
Fighting in Yemen escalates — latimes.com
This Week at War: The Middle East’s Cold War Heats Up (SWJ Blog)
Counter-Terrorism: Yemen Smolders
Winning: Not Yemen
Yemen: Fear of Contagion / ISN
Asharq Alawsat – Print This page
Winning: Yemen Is Burning
houthi threat to SA
Counter-Terrorism: The Yemeni Border Is Burning
Al Qaeda’s Yemen Connection May Be Dead – CBS News
Reuters AlertNet – YEMEN Concerns mount following beating of journalist
On the Knife’s Edge: Yemen’s Instability and the Threat to American Interests | Center for a New American Security
Modern Yemen Embraces the Tribe – Small Wars Council
Al Qaeda’s clear message
Middle East Views | Al Qaeda’s “Promised Land”
Disturbing in Yemen!
شبكة خليج عدن
Armies of Liberation
Combating Al Qaeda Means Protecting Islam
Murphy’s Law: Why Yemen Loves Saddam Hussein
Yemen: Unnatural Acts
The Jawa Report: Al Shabab to Support al Qaeda in Yemen
U.S. says Yemen group one of many al Qaeda branches | Reuters
Yemen: An Illusion To Die For
Somalia’s Al Shabaab to Ally With Al Qaeda
Asharq Alawsat – Print This page
Yemen: Terrorized Terrorists Run For Cover
US naval base
Yemen: The Other, Bigger, War
US backs CIA control of elite forces in Yemen: report
CIA and fight club
US involvement in Yemen edging toward ‘clandestine war’ – CSMonitor.com
Yemen: The Looming Apocalypse
05/31/12 – PBS did excellent in this special covering Al Qeada in Yemen. 

Filed under: Heads Up, House of turmolt, Update

Nice move #Portugal

Thats big for Portugal. Countries must influence their government with their voting proxy. Else, the lights will get turned off – all over the world.

Public programmes and employees are not above nor better nor smarter than those that support them and their own. La Familia does not include the government. The wages for government should always be below that in the private sector. Else, you end up with the inverted pyramid (Ponzi Scheme). And it crashes everybody.

Via Rantburg

Filed under: Economy, House of turmolt

The pains of succession in the Kingdom of Saud.

I have been watching intensely the leadership in Saudi Arabia for the past few years. I guess when you have been to a country, you tend to pay more mind to it. The Monarchy in house of Saud is pretty straight forward in it’s succession. In short, there is none.

The King has major health problems and Faisal is also ill as well. My assumption is Article 11 is being used in the background as outlined in Allegiance Institution Law as outlined in this Jamestown Article.

Bandar bin Sultan is the next to govern but he also is rumored to have Alzheimers. That leaves Khaled bin Sultan and Mutaib bin Abdullah. That brotherly love will probably be as strong as the kind where five get on a helicopter, and only four land with it.

It puts US in a particular situation concerning the fact that Russia and China as well as Israel are all vying for position in the future of this State. Everyone is concerned.

The reason I picked now to focus on this is I feel impending nervousness over the possibilities here in the middle of the Arab “Spring”.

It could get quite interesting.

10/14/11 – Deputy Prime Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz is temporarily assuming power as King Abdullah returns to surgery on his back in Riyad. He is the King’s half brother.

10/23/11 – Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud has passed away And i looks like Nayef is poised to take his place. We thought so since he was left in charge. See how he may rule.

10/27/11 – Looks more likely now.

10/28/11 – It’s a done deal.

06/16/12 – Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has passed. Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud may assume, but he must pick his successor from a younger generation.

06/21/12 – “The Al Sauds’ central nervous system has grown weak,” says a Riyadh lawyer. “They can respond to pain, but not to stimuli like complaints or new ideas.”

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Kings, SNAFUBAR, Update

Gadaffi

What will count are his friends, his deep pockets, and his fear of losing power. It is more powerful to him than the lives of any of his family. Any of them.He hires foreigners to protect him and fly his military craft. He hires them to snipe at people they point out. He is not about people at all and never was. Relations did warm with him given his help in other areas.

He was not a major problem for the US as of late.But, is a major problem with the immigrant population in France.
Once that Allied member committed, the game started.
Now is consequence of acting in-effectually without having proper mediation first. It rips alliances out of support.

If he now poses threat of retaliation for the declaration of war that has not been made, then are you responsible to ensure he cannot make good on that threat?

Well, he had ten billion dollars under his mattress. Heard he decided to go to the mattresses. If this is so, and it usually is, he plans to kick back. If this is seen, you must again go back to a JDAM.

We will have gone full circle in the use of force, and not using force in less than 2 months.

3/27 – Gadaffi’s troops are defecting.

08/21/11 – Tripoli falls.

 

Filed under: Battle, House of turmolt, Update

The President could not act earlier. #libya

You cannot just go in and bomb stuff. There may be good guys in the way. The AWACS needed time enough to collect information, and we needed a partner on the ground. And most important of all, they must ask us to intervene. We must know who they are to help them. So, he did good in my view. I certainly was not a proponent to act at all as it was not within US interest. But (always a but) Al-Qaeda has been drooling over Libya so they could use it for their arms trade to further Islam in Africa. Gadaffi was preventing that. Without firm confirmation from the Rebels of support, it may have been against US interest and still may turn out so.

There also is the point of international co-operation. It seemed to pass very quickly, yet the Pentagon was really against it. I do not blame them at all.

You work with the messed up world you have instead of trying to make it what you want. Once France started to strafe, we had to engage. So, for the second time, good job Mr President.

 

That being from the fact that every time I say no, you say yes. And if I know you are going forth with it, the least we can do is support our Allies if they decide to get skin in the game.

Filed under: Battle, House of turmolt, Leadership

Force of action has impact.

If you want to play, he is challenging you.

If you wait, he will kill them all. It will be the same again until they make enough babies to challenge him again.

One JDAM could end it all but you have to declare war for that. If you want a NFZ, I believe you must do the same. The Libyan government is not really “recognized”.

You are the executive, Obama. But understand that by LAW, if they plan to kill you, you must kill them first. Ergo, you have to sink a Navy, and ground an air force of an entire country you do not know will be friendly – or maybe they say they are. It’s your chain, and this is the last hour. Will you pull it for Hillary, or understand that we need standing fleets available for the pace of this here broken arrow? Events unseen and such…
You must be addicted to placing your words into action. Problem is, we are busy. Not that we cannot handle it – just the op-tempo has grown beyond comprehension and yet today you speak as the defense budget is the first on the chopping block.
I say anyone who pushes papers or collects them are non-essential, and if you have no vision, you have little place enforcing your vision on the middle east. That said, You are Commander In Chief and need to understand the ramifications of your actions. Not withstanding brackets, golf, and fundraisers to get in your way. Happy Purim

P.S. Fasting is feeding the poor personally, not jacking up prices so high they cannot afford to drive to work.

If you engage OUR Soldiers in this, you are responsible to them for eternity.

Also, Gadaffi has no chance in hell of keeping that country.

Aim High. Or not.

Filed under: Analysis, Battle, House of turmolt, Leadership

Possibilities of a new Pan-Arab war?

More like a religious war. Bahrain is not the only country torn in the middle of Iran’s meddle. Take note the ramifications surrounding Hezbollah, the Huthis, and protests by Shiite in other countries as well in the region. There is Lebanon wanting something for some reason. And Egypt arming the Libyans. Maybe if Egypt tasks itself with security, assistance may not be unreasonable. Or is it?

3/21 – Iran is testy.

3/27 – Qatar seizes two Iranian ships with weapons bound for Bahrain and Farsi speaking gunmen operating in Syria. Seeing as Assad is an ally of Iran, very plausible indeed. It is in Tehran’s interest to keep their proxy in place. The Syrians have had enough of living in a GULAG.

08/18/11 – Hezbollah hints that they will war with Israel once the US pulls out of Iraq.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Update

What the seizure of the ‘Victoria’ tells us about a changing world.

Naval power has again become the most prized force after a short while out of the limelight as air power ruled the 1990’s. Bound for Alexandria, the seizure of the Liberian flagged vessel by an Israeli vessel  Tuesday is significant in two ways: Israel no longer has a true partner in Egypt, and Iran is waging a proxy war in all quadrants of the Middle east – anything within it’s reach.

On first point, Egypt’s military is too busy handling the countries internal affairs and cannot wait to be freed of that responsibility. With-ought a government in control, the military is not at liberty to define national interest, or may be timid in acting to do so.

Israel must maintain it’s security.

06/28/11 – Naval Power must be understood and again embraced.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Leadership

Crocs and gators continued.

Mookie is back! yay. Sistani is holding grace, but it seems he has been cut from the Hojjat via partner influence. He is working on Iraq while Iran kicks “reformers” out of the running. Seems to me that something is going to boil over where Sistani does not want to be, hence his hitcrew newly “reformed” set foot in Iraq. It may also be the sliding scale of influence in the Shi’ite sect. Maybe the city of Qom is not all that holy after-all. Rafsanjani is now out of the picture so maybe something is afoot in Iran.

Of course just speculation…… no?

04/24 – Intel chief quits, supreme leader trumps prez.

04/27 – AJ may want to quit. The heat is on. And he skipped his meeting with the counsel.

05/06 – Iran gearing up for another tug-of-war: Small Wars Journal.

05/09 – A bloody brawl over the two sides and a possible Coup.

05/17 – The Pres wants to take down Supreme Leader.

05/30 – Not winning – Khamenei endorses Ahmadinejad?

06/01 – Apparently not.

06/02 – Supreme Leader is going to trump short round.

06/12 – Layla

06/16/11 – IRGC will side with Khamenei. 

07/14/2011 – Reproofed. What do the seven dwarfs say?

What this is boiling down to is the fact that “Supreme Leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei believes that the Islamic state is in jeopardy with the radical hard liners in charge – and sees himself depreciated as his reliable staff is constantly removed from Government control. It also is a spat between the IRGC and the HOTJA (or whatever it is that AJ is a part of).  QOM has sworn they will fight on the side of the Supreme Leader. A more moderate force  but will not stop the clash between true Iranians that would like to enjoy a State of Freedom from all of that ruling class. Sounds very familiar with many countries in that area. As well as ours 🙂

09/19/11 – There has been much back and forth that I have not posted as it is more bark than bite, but this gem from PBS speaks about how the IRGC is taking the Iranian Parliament.

Filed under: Analysis, Battle, House of turmolt, Update

There is no such of a thing as a “no-fly zone”.

No matter how many “No-Fly” zone posters I posted in the Middle east, there were always flies.

So, you get to watch him kill his own people in the “fly zone”? Watch him engage our Soldiers in over 2000 incidents? We had a no-fly zone in Iraq as that war never ended. Dayton accords were violated, what, 178 times? And it all ended with that guy on a rope anyway. Iraq was Americas longest war, just some people refuse to believe that. It started in 1990.

Bombing the air force is a no fly zone. But this argument is sophomoric in many manners. Have you really been asked to do so by those men with rifles on the ground? His entire inventory is in crumbles. He has his lady protection force, his clan, the MERCS, and deep pockets, but the COL cannot hang on.

We have the USS Enterprise. No way he will get over on US, if you need to make a military consideration, start here. And here.

By the way, Strategic Oil Reserves are for strategy, not an election term. Keep them full.

It belongs to the Libyans – and they WILL get rid of him. He has no muscle.There is no way Gadaffi may keep this country. His airforce is broke, he did not train a military. Give those people their own country. Let them have what is theirs and a self won victory. Angels work is weird ways, yet always faithful.

When people are reaching for something higher, be proud of them. When they learn how to maintain that, then they/you have security.

Update: So you asked for intervention, and then immediately split party in the request. Unfortunately you picked the one option off the table which leaves us to the real matter. The only real “intervention” there is is to declare War. Thats a JDAM. No more, no less. Do you want that for a brother leader? Does the US want to deliver heads in this region?

Update – 3/11, probably not our friends anyway.

3/17 Getting desperate

3/21 Haddick proposes something new and noteworthy.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Update

The Barbary Pirates and the Shores of Tripoli….

And the Suez Canal, Gush Katif, Judea and Sumariah, Aden, and Carthage.

The current order will change. America must be prepared to mine it’s own resources.

Meanwhile; in Persia, The opposition rulers Mousavi and Karroubi and their wives were arrested. Watch tomorrow – #25Bahman.

Update: From Tehran Bureau

Update again: Pirates get sunk and killed as their victims have no where to run. Or at least you would hope that was the headline when four Americans perished for the softpaw work in the executive branch. Mind the executive his military, lest he be lost among warriors. Trust the professionals.

Libya, we asked to help and only if you want it. As was the same case with every country. But if one man, woman, or child burns in chemical weapons, drop a JDAM on that f*****. And send a drone after his son.

And Egypt, your future remains in balance – of what, we do not know.

 

Filed under: House of turmolt, Update

#Croatia

What a beautiful country, albiet poor. They had their mob intervention yesterday. I don’t see it going very far.

Filed under: House of turmolt

From Carthage to Tripoli Via Cairo.

#Feb17 #tripoli  #benghazi

There would have to be something quite wrong with a person whom as a leader, hires foreign mercs to gun down his own people in the streets.

Between breakfast and now, six cities have security police forces siding with the protestors predominately in the western part of the country. When the eastern part of the country learns of the mercs meatgrinder, they may follow suit.

A prison was burned and the detainees fled. A radio station has been commandeered.  The goon squads are checking the hospitals and yanking everyone out who were at the protest, and arresting them. And there he is, riding around in an open limo in downtown Tripoli – with megga security around him.

He always was a funny fella.
They said they will punt him in 4 days or less. And they should.

#iran  #25 Bahman   # 1Esfand

The Basiji use paint guns to shoot at the protesters so they may later have them arrested.  Two of the most prominent leaders – Mousavi and Karroubi have been placed under house arrest.

The IRGC sounds unwilling to fire on protesters, we shall see.

In Tunisia, the Islamist party made their bid by burning all of the brothels.

– 02/20/11

This is personal.

You know, you really are a dick Gadaffi . You fired Artillery into the town square and murdered your own people. Now you see why I was so pissed off with Saddam.  Gain your freedom Libya, but if you screw it up, I will hold you where Ishmael is. After-all, this is whom with we speak.

P.S. Libyan military, you have a short shelf life right now. Repair that correctly.This is your Family that you shelled. The quacker himself even killed his own Family. How far are you willing to risk your neck for this guy? Why cannot Libya become kind of a tame and nice place to tour withought guys behind masks with knives dis-allowing US access into your awesome and sweet country?

Persia, nothing is finished yet, this is just starting. Iran is over as warned before. Pack off on your camels before the guard finds your deepest secrets. Iran belongs to those decent people there, not the puppet that pops out of a well.

Nothing at all useful has come out of the mullahs. Nor the “Supreme Leader”.

Nothing.

Filed under: House of turmolt, Kings, Update

Watch it live.

The house of turmolt is alive and kicking in the middle east.

If you are sitting in the White house and want to get a glimpse or feel of whats going on, don’t form a new commission, Don’t spend $80 Billlion a year for a strata-intelligence system. Go to Blogs of war!

What a fantastic job!

Also, learn about the country today!

Watch that pesky haji.

Filed under: Goodness, House of turmolt

Egypt, nuance and honesty.

Check out this neat out-take from Gloria…

An economic check on Egypt.

And remember the warning.

Slate

Filed under: House of turmolt

The disintegration of the power structures in the Middle East

Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen, Somaliland, Morocco, Jordan, Lybia, Bahrain, Kurdistan, and a few more governments looking over their shoulder. With exception to Lebanon, most of the protesters were organized flash mob style.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah forced the government to collapse by walking out of Parliament and then took over the Prime Minister slot that used to always be a Sunni position. So… that Gentleman’s agreement has failed to hold. Needless to say, it is looking like Iran2.0 there and hezbollah are highly armed. Ergo, Israel considers all of Lebanon now a terrorist state (US state department too) – thus goes USAID and all the losers are north of the blue line. Israel is concentrating on force protection. They are digging in real well.

Tunisia is far from being a third world country. They are educated and more Europeon than anything. Yet there may be implications for the other nations concerning Islam. Moreover, an implication that the priority is ousting the sitting political order with no emphasis in what replaces it. Power vacuums tend not to traditionally end well, but if it does, kudos!

Egypt has been building up feelings of resentment for quite a long time.

Their President for Life has been slow go or no go in reform and economical matters. And there also portends thuggery as well as corruption. After all, We Are All Khaled Said now.

Yemen is kind of a normal place to see protests. They are facing a literal Apocalypse, but  again, they always were. They don’t trust their leadership. The same as in Egypt.

Somaliland has always wanted to be separate from Somalia. Who could blame them? It has been a less insane part of Somalia. 3/1/10 (3 wars update)

Jordan has had some protest. King Abdullah followed Algeria’s lead calling for reform, cheaper food, etc,etc. IMRA points to related facts on this dialogue.

Libya hears grumblings as well. Gaddfi grumbled against it all. Wikileaks hurt a-lot of people.

Sometimes the Islamic groups are viewed as not corrupt and a means to end the current corrupt rule (Which was overthrown for corruption last time)

But one thing that will make or break the difference in outcomes is Food. Food Prices, Fuel prices, basic services.

One thing barely covered was the vote in South Sudan. It was a successful divide and also may have influenced events. Keep our eyes open on Abei. See how that meshes out.

In any case, I pray these countries find decent leadership. It truly is time to separate wheat from the chaff.

Pulse…

Better understanding than this in some ways.

Get these guys proxy software so they may talk to eachother. Get that ball rolling. I heard questions about it today and wondered why they had not gotten the word on how to get past a firewall. Or make an internet.

Do not forget that Iran is now jailing and executing their opposition since the rest of the world “is not watching”.

1/28  Albania is starting to become restless.

2/9  Pakistan looses it’s Parliament

2/9  Jordan has the usual suspects waiting in the wings to spread Mayhem.

2/11 – Yemen is starting to get heated.

2/12 Gabon tries their hand.

2/13 Iran is starting to kick off

2/14 Baharain gets some help from house of Saud.

2/17 Libya’s kickoff

Bahrain #feb14, Libya #feb17, Algeria #feb19, Morocco #feb20, Cameroon #feb23, Kuwait #Mar8

3/21 Yemen is now very hot. Syria is intense but not yet there. Jordan, Morocco look solid but watch it.

3/24 Syria has probably not seen this much discontent ever. You know, an Al-Assad also ruled Asyria 2000 years ago.

4/27 Syria – Soldiers in the military are defecting, the security apparatus is becoming more distant from the political wing.

05/18 – Somaliland becoming state sponsors of terrs.

05/22 – Albania has pesky socialists making trouble

05/27 – What the power vacuum in Egypt is becoming, … and it’s Evil as Hell.

05/28 – Yemen on the brink. Beware.

05/29 – Egypt has another presidential “hopeful”.

05/30 – Syria – the siege of Dera’a and a little boy caught in the middle.

06/01 – Bashir is trying to take Abyei

06/06 – CNAS Conference from 06/02. Very good viewing.

06/08 – Syria is coming down to the wire as the ruling class starts to flee Damascus.

06/09 – Syria – Divisions in the Syrian forces.

06/10 – Egypt: The salifist are climbing out from under the rocks.

06/11 – Egypt: Enlightenment on the Salifist.  and the moslem brotherhood’s economic  plan.

06/13 – Intelligence is losing ground in the Middle East. Not good

06/20 – Baby Assad gives a speech at a time where Syrians  stream across the Turkish border Syrian army in pursuit- Turkey rejects.

06/28/11 – Somalia lawmakers elect a Harvard Educated Prime Minister.

06/29/11 -Turkey wants to invade Syria. And life inside a Syrian prison.  Us works the web of regime change,  Assad will not make it.

06/30/11 – Egypt has a new “moderate” candidate.

07/01/11 – Morocco votes on a Constitutional referendum.

07/04/11 –  Syria Military separation may be developing fast. The worry is if Assad falls, the Allawites get wiped out. If not, the Sunni continue to take fire.

07/08/11 – SWJ Challenges ahead in the Middle East.

07/09/11 – South Sudan is now a separate state. The UN is sending in “peacekeepers” but there is a buildup up north

Sudan: Photos of the New Country. (beware the always un-professional pop-up with sound ads but then you can see the photos stuff)

07/14/11 – The Kurds want their autonomy as promised by the UN – yet undelivered. With the disintegration of Syria, and contentions on the Turkish border as well as parts of Iran, this may become a big deal.

07/15/11 – The Kurds want their autonomy as promised by the UN – yet undelivered. With the disintegration of Syria, and contentions on the Turkish border as well as parts of Iran, this may become a big deal. Turkey will be edging to war against the PKK and expulsion of Kurds may be seen from outlying areas in the border region. Turkey will not turn down this chance to expel Kurds from “Turkish” territory as the as the opportunity has presented itself.  I love the Kurds.

Iran has internal strife as they try to garner more influence in their immediate vicinity.

07/27/11 – An NSN update

07/28/11 – Egypt: Could this Woman be the next President?  I wish.

07/30/11 – Turkey: Military top brass resigns en-masse.  From FP Mag.

07/30/11 – Syria: Earlier in this week I saw a story that Syrian Military Generals were defecting and later that week I heard a report that that story was indeed false. Apparently on the 29th, the Syrian Military went out posing as opposition to Assad and once people joined them, they were shot. High caliber weapons were used and  it is not over yet.

Lebanon or Syria?

08/17/11 – Food prices and political instability (PDF)

08/18/11 – Hezbollah hints that they will war with Israel once the US pulls out of Iraq Hence leading to my theory earlier this year.

08/29/11 – Gaddafi flees, his family in Algeria, Syrian demonstrations intensify. Big storm leaves US. Iran turmolt continues.

09/16/11 – The Secularist-Islamist Struggle in Libya Begins. And, a short history of the Arab world and it’s corruption.

09/18/11 – Turkey: Erdogan – going crazy is logical.

09/20/11 – Some harsh reviews of Mr President over the handling of the middle east as well as a fast paced run down.

09/29/11 – Pakistan as willingness party? You don’t say. But be easy, you backed greater monsters for less. Having a handle is better than nothing.

10/14/11 – Just a short update on the landscape:

Egyptian Copts are facing great pressure from the populace and the military tends to not protect them. More than 100,000 have fled. It looks as if the “revolution” has led the country to a military coup. Seemed logical from the start.

Turkey is still acting huffy over the Israeli detention of the flotilla and is also facing some stiff resistance from the Kurds with the PKK. Turkey is also an influential partner in the US led sanctions against Iran so diplomatic ties are operating in constant.

In Libya, Sirte is still under siege but some progress by the TNR.

In Lebanon, it seems Hezbollah’s grasp has been weakened as Syria undergoes it’s own turmolt.

In Yemen, Saleh has returned and stated he plans to step down – than immediately started re-consolidating power.

Still nothing of Tunesia.

Jordan’s King actually made steps to reform and the country maintains stability.

Somalia is still Somalia.

Iran failed to launch Ahmadinejad into space.

10/18/11 – It is a good thing that Iraq was taken down as Turkey naturally fills the role. It is still looking for identity.

10/31/11 – A Syrian civil war.

11/14/11 – Who’s who in the Syrian rebellion.

11/17/11 – Wahabbist vs Sunni in Syria.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, Update, Viewing

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