Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen, Somaliland, Morocco, Jordan, Lybia, Bahrain, Kurdistan, and a few more governments looking over their shoulder. With exception to Lebanon, most of the protesters were organized flash mob style.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah forced the government to collapse by walking out of Parliament and then took over the Prime Minister slot that used to always be a Sunni position. So… that Gentleman’s agreement has failed to hold. Needless to say, it is looking like Iran2.0 there and hezbollah are highly armed. Ergo, Israel considers all of Lebanon now a terrorist state (US state department too) – thus goes USAID and all the losers are north of the blue line. Israel is concentrating on force protection. They are digging in real well.
Tunisia is far from being a third world country. They are educated and more Europeon than anything. Yet there may be implications for the other nations concerning Islam. Moreover, an implication that the priority is ousting the sitting political order with no emphasis in what replaces it. Power vacuums tend not to traditionally end well, but if it does, kudos!
Egypt has been building up feelings of resentment for quite a long time.
Their President for Life has been slow go or no go in reform and economical matters. And there also portends thuggery as well as corruption. After all, We Are All Khaled Said now.
Libya hears grumblings as well. Gaddfi grumbled against it all. Wikileaks hurt a-lot of people.
Sometimes the Islamic groups are viewed as not corrupt and a means to end the current corrupt rule (Which was overthrown for corruption last time)
But one thing that will make or break the difference in outcomes is Food. Food Prices, Fuel prices, basic services.
One thing barely covered was the vote in South Sudan. It was a successful divide and also may have influenced events. Keep our eyes open on Abei. See how that meshes out.
In any case, I pray these countries find decent leadership. It truly is time to separate wheat from the chaff.
Get these guys proxy software so they may talk to eachother. Get that ball rolling. I heard questions about it today and wondered why they had not gotten the word on how to get past a firewall. Or make an internet.
Do not forget that Iran is now jailing and executing their opposition since the rest of the world “is not watching”.
1/28 Albania is starting to become restless.
2/9 Pakistan looses it’s Parliament
2/9 Jordan has the usual suspects waiting in the wings to spread Mayhem.
2/11 – Yemen is starting to get heated.
2/12 Gabon tries their hand.
2/13 Iran is starting to kick off
2/17 Libya’s kickoff
Bahrain #feb14, Libya #feb17, Algeria #feb19, Morocco #feb20, Cameroon #feb23, Kuwait #Mar8
3/21 Yemen is now very hot. Syria is intense but not yet there. Jordan, Morocco look solid but watch it.
3/24 Syria has probably not seen this much discontent ever. You know, an Al-Assad also ruled Asyria 2000 years ago.
4/27 Syria – Soldiers in the military are defecting, the security apparatus is becoming more distant from the political wing.
05/18 – Somaliland becoming state sponsors of terrs.
05/22 – Albania has pesky socialists making trouble
05/28 – Yemen on the brink. Beware.
05/29 – Egypt has another presidential “hopeful”.
06/01 – Bashir is trying to take Abyei
06/06 – CNAS Conference from 06/02. Very good viewing.
06/09 – Syria – Divisions in the Syrian forces.
06/10 – Egypt: The salifist are climbing out from under the rocks.
06/13 – Intelligence is losing ground in the Middle East. Not good
06/20 – Baby Assad gives a speech at a time where Syrians stream across the Turkish border Syrian army in pursuit- Turkey rejects.
06/28/11 – Somalia lawmakers elect a Harvard Educated Prime Minister.
06/30/11 – Egypt has a new “moderate” candidate.
07/01/11 – Morocco votes on a Constitutional referendum.
07/04/11 – Syria Military separation may be developing fast. The worry is if Assad falls, the Allawites get wiped out. If not, the Sunni continue to take fire.
07/08/11 – SWJ Challenges ahead in the Middle East.
Sudan: Photos of the New Country. (beware the always un-professional pop-up with sound ads but then you can see the photos stuff)
07/14/11 – The Kurds want their autonomy as promised by the UN – yet undelivered. With the disintegration of Syria, and contentions on the Turkish border as well as parts of Iran, this may become a big deal.
07/15/11 – The Kurds want their autonomy as promised by the UN – yet undelivered. With the disintegration of Syria, and contentions on the Turkish border as well as parts of Iran, this may become a big deal. Turkey will be edging to war against the PKK and expulsion of Kurds may be seen from outlying areas in the border region. Turkey will not turn down this chance to expel Kurds from “Turkish” territory as the as the opportunity has presented itself. I love the Kurds.
Iran has internal strife as they try to garner more influence in their immediate vicinity.
07/27/11 – An NSN update…
07/28/11 – Egypt: Could this Woman be the next President? I wish.
07/30/11 – Syria: Earlier in this week I saw a story that Syrian Military Generals were defecting and later that week I heard a report that that story was indeed false. Apparently on the 29th, the Syrian Military went out posing as opposition to Assad and once people joined them, they were shot. High caliber weapons were used and it is not over yet.
08/17/11 – Food prices and political instability (PDF)
09/18/11 – Turkey: Erdogan – going crazy is logical.
09/20/11 – Some harsh reviews of Mr President over the handling of the middle east as well as a fast paced run down.
09/29/11 – Pakistan as willingness party? You don’t say. But be easy, you backed greater monsters for less. Having a handle is better than nothing.
10/14/11 – Just a short update on the landscape:
Egyptian Copts are facing great pressure from the populace and the military tends to not protect them. More than 100,000 have fled. It looks as if the “revolution” has led the country to a military coup. Seemed logical from the start.
Turkey is still acting huffy over the Israeli detention of the flotilla and is also facing some stiff resistance from the Kurds with the PKK. Turkey is also an influential partner in the US led sanctions against Iran so diplomatic ties are operating in constant.
In Libya, Sirte is still under siege but some progress by the TNR.
In Lebanon, it seems Hezbollah’s grasp has been weakened as Syria undergoes it’s own turmolt.
In Yemen, Saleh has returned and stated he plans to step down – than immediately started re-consolidating power.
Still nothing of Tunesia.
Jordan’s King actually made steps to reform and the country maintains stability.
Somalia is still Somalia.
Iran failed to launch Ahmadinejad into space.
10/18/11 – It is a good thing that Iraq was taken down as Turkey naturally fills the role. It is still looking for identity.
10/31/11 – A Syrian civil war.
11/14/11 – Who’s who in the Syrian rebellion.
11/17/11 – Wahabbist vs Sunni in Syria.