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#Syria, Russian Chess, Red Lines and Red Lights.

I do not write in any official state capacity

There are few good options in regards to Syria.

The Arab Spring had a way of drawing fighters into unstable Countries. Once the US left Iraq, all the nasties started to fan back out and fight anywhere they could. Remember this is separate from the original Syrian uprising which was by Syrians for reform.

As for the CW use, you would have to have considerable equipment for the area covered plus the amount of casualties make it unlikely that rebels have the capability of such a strike. If in fact Syrian Generals went Rogue, this would still be the responsibility of Assad. His CW stock = his neck. There was an assassination attack aimed at Assad a week prior which makes this look as retribution.

It is sad to say that after Libya and Benghazi, I Am skeptical that CINC has his head in the game or that he could run a conflict. Going to War with a distracted CINC during sequestration with a Military Pay cut and low morale may not be wise. An attack by a CINC that was going to with hold Soldier pay while they were in Combat while still allowing welfare checks to go out does not inspire my confidence in his taking the Military seriously. Rot his Soul. It may slow removal of our equipment from Afghanistan and that is not even the tip of the iceberg.

If CINC wanted to send a shot over the bow, he could just send a fighter jet to buzz Damascus and blow out all their windows. That would be plenty of warning enough. However, as things currently stand, it is too late to make any action that would have considerable meaning (Such as taking out the launchers and military units involved in the CW attack). Hence, we lost our violence of action and most of that stuff has been moved by now.

CINC should have pulled a Regan on them and taken those units out right after CW was used but that is not here nor there. Russia gets awful huffy about it.

The US is not the only Country that has options here. Naturally, were action to take place, Hezbollah would strike Israel and in Lebanon (Not that they don’t plan that anyways). They would also strike at our Embassies and here at home as well. Russia could drop the hammer on Saudi Arabia. The Suez could be blocked which with Obamas Soviet Economy, could finish collapsing the US and wipe out the dollar. Note I said finish as POTUS has collapsed the economy considerably.

Jordan and Iraq stated they would refuse allowing a strike from their Countries.

China is also sending ships. No telling how that arranges events.

An out as proposed by the Russians and approved by the Syrian Regime was to place CW under International control. For now, this is the best plan and I would highly suggest that this action be taken. It would not be easy as this would require much coordination and Forcible inspection.

I would not give a green light at all for an attack on Syria at this point if the above plan truly is instituted. I probably would not give a green light anyway. All and all, in the end, it’s all about Assads lack of a chin.

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Some references as I don’t have time to link up this post.

Filed under: Analysis, House of turmolt, SNAFUBAR

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