Likely option for the Russians as they amass their armies on western Irans border – mainly Caucus region. Whats there? Georgia and Azerbaijan. I could see them settling old scores with Georgia, punch on through to Azerbaijan where sits Iran. If Azerbaijan was where Israel was to fly mission from, well, that option just got difficult. You always need ground crew.
One outstanding point about this is also the fact that the Azeris want alot to do with Iran post mullah. Whats the Russian view of this?
Turkey is obviously a Fulcrum here. They have promised to assist US, but to what point? and can I trust the CINC to not make this a entebbe moment.
04/18/12 – INSS completes something I wanted to go further on. I would not advise Russia use this as opportune time to right old wrongs or to settle prowess. Actually the opposite. For Russia, it is time to build Humnit, source capability, Intel, humanitarian crap, and refugees are going to be trouble for all Nations. Turkey, Jordan, etc are facing some numbers so it’s important to learn from those who flee a nation.
Russia protects port in Syria, the rest right now may be un-wise. Russia is the Intel . Israel frontline actor, US, reluctant partner. As you stated, Russia, you were not really interested in Iran as you were Syria. NO?