The Russians are adimant about regaining their sphere of influence. Imagine a conversation”
Q: Why are you going to invade Georgia?
A: Why did you invade Kosovo?
A: You may keep Israel, but we want Syria. We have a naval base there.
Naturally, as We deploy minesweepers to the Straight Of Hormuz, and the Russians send Marine units to Syria, to their port. They have Three ships. Strangely, they did not seem to care to defend Iran – “If you want to take Iran, take Iran but do not mess with us in Syria”. (That’s codespeak for “we will make sure we make everything you do very difficult for you to do until you pay us off somehow”)
Makes sense as the Russians have just as much to lose with a nuclear Iran as would ourselves.
It appears to me that Russia wants to persue a King Ruble strategy and that means beefing up their petrol empire. With Europe in HOC and the US being too stupid to compete, they may have a fighting chance… except for the rank corruption which is as big as ever in Russia.
With Syria, Russia could have a complete defense and pipeline loop of secure fuel for Europe – and a far stronger Ruble. This makes Tiblisi as a mere speed bump on the way through Turkey and ultimately out of a military port in Syria.
Seeing as the Russians have made numerous past (Military and/or “Aid”) investments in the likes of Syria and Lebanon, make no expectation of the Russians to taint long term goals for which they have been long laying railroad tracks. Were it their choice, they probably would like to have a very large base in Syria. I do not see them having qualms with whomever takes Syria. I am sure the Syrians no matter whom, are not going to mess with the Russians at the port.